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  • gapala
    06-21 09:43 PM
    Usually they will give you 3-4 weeks to leave.

    What do you mean by they will give you?

    The moment your I-485 is denied, Form the date of denial, your stay is considered unauthorized. You may have to leave soon as possible. If you accumulate more than 180 days and leave the country, you will be barred for 3 years from entering US. If you stay more than 365 days, you will get a 10 year ban. From the date of 485 denial till you leave the country, If you own a home, they know where to find you..if you decide to overstay...

    Please do not post wrong information..





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  • alisa
    12-30 11:34 PM
    It is preposterous to compare Mumbai attacks with a speculative India involvement in Baluchistan.

    The principal actors, i.e. the actual fighters on the ground in Baluchitan are all Baluchis. Were Qasaab and his other 9 companions Kashmiris? What locus standi these west punjabi fighters have to attack Mumbai?

    Baluch conflict is limited primarily to armed skirmishes between Pakitani army and BLA (and may be some other Baluch nationalist groups). In military terms it can legitimately be called fair fight because both parties are armed. But can shooting unarmed civilians in the back who are sipping coffee or eating dinner or just waiting for a train be called a fair fight? Can the rules of engagement of any country, or the morals of any religion permit that? Isn�t this a text book example of pure unadultrated terrorism.

    I never suggested they Bombay and Balochistan were morally equivalent.

    At some point in this thread, someone suggested that India should try to destabilize Pakistan by supporting insurgent and militant groups in Pakistan. And I had merely suggested that Pakistan already suspects India of doing that. And that there is probably some truth in it. And Pakistan supports insurgent groups in India.
    Or at least, both countries keep their 'options' open by maintaining contacts with the insurgent in the other countries.
    That is the vicious cycle.

    As far as Bombay is concerned, I have said it before that I believe that that was an attempt to provoke India, so that the Pakistan army can be diverted to the Eastern front, and the Taalibaan/militants get some relief.

    I think the Indian think tanks think that the Pakistan army was behind it. I think that the Taalibaans/Jihadists were behind it. It will be very hard to prove it one way or the other.

    And war would be a disaster; like jumping from the frying pan into the fire. What amazes me is the capacity of the human mind to give in to irrationality, and vigorously advocate jumping from the frying pan into the fire.





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  • xyzgc
    12-22 09:35 PM
    With all due respect XYZGC, I never said Kashmir should be gifted to Pakistan. What I have said is for a UN supervised solution. And I did not change my mind on that. We have fought three major wars and spending crores to maintain the status quo but to what end. It just a pain in @$$.

    I share you concerns about Hindu minority in Pakistan and other Islamic society. But to make it clear neither I am against Islam (Though I DO NOT support the present Islamic Leadership structure) nor I beleive that it is not even remotely possible to covert India into a Islamic Society. But one should be prepared just in case.

    On the other hand , I do beleive that by declaring Pakistan a terrorist nation it will force them to take some drastic steps.

    Yes, we agree. I am also not against islam but against islamic leadership, especially the hardliners who seem to be ruling the Pakistani and drowning out the voices of the moderates and intellectuals there. In fact, nobody is against any individual.
    And you never used the word "gifted". You already provided your reasons for saying whatever you did.





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  • dohko
    04-09 01:46 PM
    You're right excellent idea. 50% won't really affect Microsoft, Oracle, IBM
    because they actually hire Americans.


    Chill out pal, don't exaggerate how much people value academic degrees in real business world. Holding a Ms or PhD degree alone doesn't necessarily mean you're an asset to this country, nor to a particular employer. I have Ms degree from US institution and I don't think it matters much to my employer, everything is based on performance.

    I agree that H1-B visa should be granted to people who fill a real business need, not those who are unfortunately treated as unlimited supply for body-shoppers making their fortune selling hours of H1-Bs. In this perspective, the idea of restricting companies with 50+% H1-Bs is brilliant. I wouldn't worry about management consulting firms like BCG or McKinsey, I bet they don't have half of their consultants under H1-b. :-)



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  • Macaca
    12-30 06:26 PM
    Select Readings


    Alessandrini, Michele and Tullio Buccellato (2008), �China, India and Russia: Economic reforms, structural change and regional disparities,� Economics Working Paper No.97, December 2008, London: Centre for the Study of Economic and Social Change in Europe, 33 pp.
    Hoffmann, Steven A (1990), India and the China Crisis, Berkeley: University of California Press, 324 pp.
    Malone, David M. and Rohan Mukherjee (2010), �India and China: Conflict and
    Cooperation,� Survival, vol.52: 1, pp. 137-158.
    Bajpaee, Chietigj (2007),�The Panda and the Peacock,� China Security, vol. 3 no. 4 Autumn 2007, pp. 103 � 123.

    Asian Development Bank (2010), Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2010, �The Rise of Asia�s Middle Class,� 41st Edition, 2010, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, August 2010, 283 pp.
    Pew Global Attitudes Project (2010) (http:/ /pewglobal.org/files/2010/10/Pew-Global-Attitudes-India-Report-FINAL-October-20- 2010.pdf), Indians See Threat From Pakistan, Extremist Groups, Released: Wednesday, October 20, 2010; Accessed online 12 December 2010
    The Chinese Central Government�s Official Web Portal (http://www.gov.cn/english/leaders/wenjiabao.htm); Accessed online 16-20 December 2010

    �Chinese premier calls for enhanced cooperation, trade with India (http:// www.gov.cn/english/2010-12/16/content_1766862.htm)�

    �China-India friendship,� Chinese premier tells teenagers in India with calligraphy (http://www.gov.cn/english/2010-12/16/content_1766822.htm)�
    Ministry of External Affairs (http://www.mea.gov.in/)

    Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People�s Republic of China (http://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/)

    �We�ll be able to reach strategic consensus, says Wen (http:// www.hindustantimes.com/specials/coverage/jiabaovisit/We-ll-be-able-to-reachstrategic-consensus-says-Wen/newdelhi/SP-Article10-639024.aspx),� Hindustan Times
    �Prime Minister and Wen to talk trade, stir sticky issues (http://www.hindustantimes.com/Prime-Minister-andWen-to-talk-trade-stir-sticky-issues/Article1-639018.aspx),� Hindustan Times

    �India, China developing relationship of substance: Indian ambassador (http:// news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-12/13/c_13646832.htm),� Xinhua News

    �Jiabao�s visit to focus on strengthening Indo-China trade (http:// www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/jiabaos-visit-tofocusstrengthening-indo-china-trade_505188.html),� CNBC
    �Has Chinese premier�s visit strengthened India-China bonds? (http:// www.moneycontrol.com/news/current-affairs/has-chinese-premiers-visitstrengthened-india-china-bonds_505516.html),� CNBC
    �China-India ties fragile, need special care: Chinese envoy (http:// timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/China-India-ties-fragile-need-special-careChinese-envoy-/articleshow/7092210.cms),� The Times of India
    �RCom to raise $1.9 bn from China bank (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ tech/news/telecom/RCom-to-raise-19-bn-from-China-bank/articleshow/ 7106651.cms),� The Times of India
    �India, China cement ties with 49 pacts (http://financialexpress.com/news/indiachina-cement-ties-with-49-pacts/725349/2),� Financial Express
    �China�s domestic demand push boon for Indian exporters (http:// www.financialexpress.com/news/chinas-domestic-demand-push-boon-forindian-exporters/724771/2),� Financial Express
    �Indian drug firms look to scale the Great Wall (http:// www.financialexpress.com/news/indian-drug-firms-look-to-scale-the-greatwall/724785/),� Financial Express
    �Pact on financial services likely to open doors for Chinese banks (http:// www.financialexpress.com/news/pact-on-financial-services-likely-to-open-doorsfor-chinese-banks/724780/),� Financial Express
    �India, China May Sign Banking Accord During Wen Jiabao�s Visit (http:// www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-13/india-china-may-sign-banking-accord-during-wen-visit-easing-icbc-s-entry.html),� Bloomberg
    �Shanghai Halts Fixed-Asset Lending through Year End (http://online.wsj.com/ article/SB10001424052748703929404576022550653865350.html), � The Wall Street Journal
    �PBOC Officials: Interest Rate Hike Could Hamper Economic Soft Landing (http:/ /online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101220-702333.html),� The Wall Street Journal
    �Foreign Ministers should look into pending issues: Wen (http:// www.thehindu.com/news/national/article956137.ece),�
    �Officials should sort out stapled visa issue: Wen (http://www.thehindu.com/ news/national/article956256.ece),� The Hindu
    �Muslim women lead protests in restive west China (http:// www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31853732/ns/world_news-asia-pacific/),� MSNBC
    �China�s Galloping Inflation (http://blogs.forbes.com/ gordonchang/2010/12/12/chinas-galloping-inflation/),� Gordon G. Chang | Forbes,
    �Business interests further Sino-Indian ties (http://opinion.globaltimes.cn/ foreign-view/2010-12/603015.html),� GlobalTimes

    �Al Qaeda urges Uighur jihad in China. So what? (http://www.csmonitor.com/ World/Global-News/2009/1008/al-qaeda-urges-uighur-jihad-in-china-so-what),�

    �The story of Chinese monetary sterilization (http://www.livemint.com/2010/ 12/20215815/The-story-of-Chinese-monetary.html),�
    �Chinese banks scaling back loans to ship owners, yards (http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/shippingtimes/story/0,4574,417590- 1292443140,00.html?),� December 15, 2010,





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  • Ramba
    08-05 02:28 PM
    Good points, but let me put a counter argument. Two people , one is named SunnySurya and the other is named Mr XYZ. Both came to the USA at the same time in 1999. The difference was SunnySurya came here for his masters and the other guy came here through shady means.

    Mr XYZ was able to file his green card in 2002 in EB3 category based on his shady arrangements with his employer, whereas Mr SunnySurya continued to do right and socially acceptable things i.e. studied, got a job and then after several years this big company filled his green card in EB2 category in 2006.

    On the other hand after strugling for several years Mr. XYZ has collected enough years on his resume to be elligible for EB2. Now he want to port his PD

    SunnySurya's PD is 2006 and Mr. XYZ PD is 2002. Now if Mr. XYZ want to stand in EB2 line, I wonder what problems SunnySurya can have???:confused:

    Agree. Like labor subsitution scandal/abuse, you should have a documenterly evidence to go after this scam (creating duplicate EB2 job just to cut-short the line). If it is a USCIS rule, they may ripoff this ( like labor sub.). It is long way to go. The nut shell-- as long us GC is in high demand, people abuse the system. DOL, USCIS, knows this. Thatswhy DOL is auditing most EB2 labor certification. In my view, who ever filed EB2 between 2000 to 2004 (when EB3 was current) are true-EB2. After 2005, most of the EB2 filings are cut-short the EB3 que. Most of the cases not based on actual MINIMUM requirements for the job. Everyone knows this..



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  • WantGCQuick
    06-08 10:11 AM
    I think nowadays you can get great deals in suwanee area, but in alpharetta area (ATLANTA) which is couple of exits towards the city on 400 highway.. are still selling for 400K..I am talking about 3000 sq ft, houses.. I got a quote for 420K with basement 3070 sqft.. with decent upgrades...
    and these homes are closely built compared to the ones in suwanee area..

    The homes prices never came down in these areas!!





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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-29 09:07 PM
    When I Take a long time to finish, I am slow,

    When my boss takes a long time, he is thorough


    When I don't do it, I am lazy,

    When my boss does not do it, he is busy,


    When I do something without being told, I am trying to be smart,

    When my boss does the same, he takes the initiative,


    When I please my boss, I am apple polishing,

    When my boss pleases his boss, he is cooperating,


    When I make a mistake, I' am an idiot.

    When my boss makes a mistake, he's only human.


    When I am out of the office, I am wondering around.

    When my boss is out of the office, he's on business.


    When I am on a day off sick, I am always sick.

    When my boss is a day off sick, he must be very ill.


    When I apply for leave, I must be going for an interview

    When my boss applies for leave, it's because he's overworked


    When I do good, my boss never remembers,

    When I do wrong, he never forgets



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  • pappu
    04-07 05:35 AM
    Guys,

    There is going to be no difference whether you

    1. Renew your H1 at the same company by filing an extension,
    2. Transfer your H1 to another company by filing a transfer or
    3. File a brand-new cap-subject H1 for someone who has never been on H1.

    ALL OF THE 3 WILL BE AFFECTED.

    For all 3, you have to file the same form I-129 and you get the same 2 forms in return from USCIS : I-797 (and I-94 too unless its an H1 for someone outside USA).

    The first 2 ways are cap exempt, and the last one (brand new) H1 is cap subject.

    But the process is the same. Paperwork is the same. You have to file LCA that shows the address/location of work, nature of work, title, salary etc. So even if you are working at same company, when you file for extension, you have to file a new LCA, that has all information and all that information will DISQUALIFY you if the new law passed and those rules of "consulting is illegal, outplacement at client site is illegal" apply.

    So take this seriously and do not underestimate this.

    And if you work perm-fulltime it will indirectly affect you. Projects are not done in isolation. Most projects have a mix of full-time employees and consultants who are sourced from vendors and H1B recruitors. Projects falter and fail when abruptly some consultants go back to their home countries because their H1s couldnt get extended. And that affects everyone. Job security depends on success of IT or other projects and if you are a part of failed project that was lost half way due to lack of skilled employees, then your job security also diminishes. If you are laid off, then the H1 transfer to a new company would be subject to the new rules under this law.

    Infact, this affects everyone.

    Students looking for new H1B
    Students on OPT
    H1Bs getting extensions
    H4s transferring to H1Bs

    and all H1Bs indirectly and directly

    Because now ALL employers will be hesitant to hire an H1B in ANY field due to such tough laws and lot of paperwork and lot of restrictions.





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  • panky72
    08-06 03:20 PM
    A man dies and goes to hell. There he finds that there is a different hell for each country. He goes to the German hell and asks, "What do they do here?" He told," First they put you in an electric chair for an hour. Then they lay you on a bed of nails for another hour. Then the German devil comes in and beats you for the rest of the day."

    The man does not like the sound of that at all, so he moves on. He checks out the USA hell as well as the Russian hell and many more. He discovers that they are all more or less the same as the German hell.

    Then he comes to the Indian hell and finds that there is a long line of people waiting to get in. Amazed, he asks, "What do they do here?" He told, "First they put you in an electric chair for an hour. Then they lay you on a bed of nails for another hour. Then the Indian devil comes in and beats you for the rest of the day." "But that is exactly the same as all the other hells - why are there so many people waiting to get in?"

    "Because maintenance is so bad that the electric chair does not work, someone has stolen all the nails from the bed, and the devil is a Software Engineer , so he comes in, signs the register and then goes to the Cafeteria!!! !!



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  • cinqsit
    03-24 07:03 PM
    When I first started to get to know consulatants and staffing companies; I thought that this whole bribe system; creating positions at end clients; how consultants got selected, etc., was a big racket.

    However; when I did introspection of how things worked in my industry; I pretty much concluded that it was done in same way but at much, much higher levels.

    USCIS is just keeping it pretty simple these days; show us that there is a job with an end client that requires a degree. They pretty much know that it is impossible. Even if you can get one; they pick on it pretty good and still deny it.

    The system was actually designed for staffing companies when you think about it. When h-1b was first created; no one would have used it if it wasn't for staffing companies. Typical US companies wouldn't have the network to get foreign employees unless they were already here. To get them from a foreign country then the only companies who can really do so are the staffing companies.

    The main reason that I can't get behind lifting of the country quota is exactly this reason. You have a lot of companies run by the same nationality who will only recruit their own people. The staffing companies don't advertise in Indonesia, Germany, Brazil, etc. They only go after their own people. The whole monopolization of visas was used to prevent this type of behaviour.

    I always thought that there are people from around the world who want to come here but can't because they are not part of the "system". You can see this in the greencard lottery. Almost 9 million people apploy to get here through this. If they had their own country people looking to get them here then there would be a more equal distribution of visas.

    I think people need to step back and think that this is one of the reasons why they have country quotas. No matter what people think that they re being hired for their skills and that employers don't care about their nationality; people need to understand that a "system" has been designed that is benefitting a few nationalities. Once you can get here then you can find your way. However, if you can't get here then you can't find your way.

    Its rather ironic that system created for staffing companies was misused so rampantly that they are the ones bearing the brunt of this onslaught.

    So according to your experience are they are always denying applications even when the employee is able to furnish a contract with the end client ? This is indeed surprising and alarming. I am just worried this can spill in to everything that USCIS adjudicates.
    on the other hand how do you put an end to this misuse ?

    Should'nt they establish a set of guidelines for the employers and employees? So both are aware what they are up against. Looks like its pretty arbritary right now and USCIS indeed playing the "hand of god"





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  • gcgreen
    08-06 02:16 PM
    But you see, what YOU think RollingFlood wants cannot be achieved through a lawsuit. From what I and pretty much most of us understand from the letter of the law is that it allows for earliest priority date. A lawsuit cannot change the law. Also remember that GCs in the employment based category are given based on SPONSORSHIP by an employer. So an EB3 got an earlier priority date based on a labor petition that existed at some earlier period in time when RollingFlood, I, and plenty of others decided we wanted to get a PhD instead. That was OUR choice.

    Also, this is a free country. People who are really committed to get an advanced degree, can enroll in graduate school part time, which is what many people I know did. They hopped onto the GC line as EB3 and went to grad school part time. Some now have graduate degrees from places like Stanford.

    Also note that the law accounts for really smart people to be unfettered by allowing for things such as EB2 National Interest Waiver and EB1 exceptional ability.

    To say that just because someone was doing a PhD and therefore needs to get an earlier priority date that accounts for their graduate program is, to say the least, weird. It is mixing up the employment based system with a merit based system. In fact, one could argue a merit based system should not have any notion of priority dates whatsoever!

    Also, just like you, I have no personal gain from this, one way or the other :-)

    I don't think Rolling flood is debating the eligibility of 5 years experience post Bachelors for EB2. The point here is about porting which enables one to retain the priority date from the EB3 application which maybe required Bachelors + 0 years. To balance things out why not give a person who acquires a Masters or PhD a few years in terms of priority date.

    Note that I have no personal gain from any of the above happening. :)



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  • tdasara
    08-11 02:39 PM
    I am not sure if he cares to know that 'even foreign born PhD's need H1b visa to work and do research here before they get a Greencard'.

    If am not wrong he also mentioned wide and loud that 'H1b visa holders pay NO taxes (SSN and Medicare) included and take/send their earned money home'.





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  • morchu
    08-03 02:29 PM
    Not true.
    All it matters is the "intention" to get employed in the offered position & the job duties of the AC21 job you have at the time of adjudicating 485.

    Means.... never joining your original 485 employer ... by it self... wont cause any issue.


    ok now i'm really confused between AC21 and future employment debate....
    AC21 can be used after 6 months of 485 filing to change the job but then once u get GC you have to work for the original company that filed your 485 for few months?? so for e.g. if i change my job after lets say 1 year of 485 filing and lets say my 485 is approved after 3 years so now do i have to quit my new job and go back to my old employer to work for few months to get my gc? am i understanding this correct? i think i'm not... can you please clarify?? thnx



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  • GCKaMaara
    01-10 04:55 PM
    First of all, thanks for converting my argument about Europeans and native peoples into Muslims and non-Muslims. Shows us where our respective prejudices and biases lie. I am very happy when my comments on any situation are turned into a broad 'us vs them' thing. It just shows us that our primitive and primal instincts from the time when we split from the apes are still alive and kicking in some people. Its pretty fascinating for me.

    Secondly there is a difference between military strikes (retaliatory or otherwise), and acts of massacres. Pretty much the same as there is a difference between military confrontation and ethnic cleansing. If you condone and defend the latter, then you are pretty much defending ethnic cleansing. Striking Hamas targets are military strikes. Holing up a hundred members of an extended family into a house, and then destroying the house is an act of massacre. When we defend acts like the latter one, we defend ethnic cleansing.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/massacre-of-a-family-seeking-sanctuary-1297577.html

    You are pretty much right. Lets not combine "40 innocent children killed" with war. Even if it is war, it is a war crime. God bless soul of those kids.

    About poisoning kids by extremists, I agree that they are poisoned from very childhood. But killing them is not a solution - never. If it is a problem with 1 or 2 persons, you can work on them and get them out of poisoned mind. Can't work on mass. Thats why B****ds who have their personal benefits associated, always associate these poisons with religion to expand their own empire. Misguided muslim people need to and will understand one day that they are breeding dangerous new generations and is hurting themselves.





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  • anjans
    07-14 02:05 PM
    guys, it is very frustrating to be waiting for GC 8yrs from applying! with you there. But As VB says it will come to FY03 levels in Oct so, it is just a few months away.

    Also, who gets EB2 vs EB3 is decided on the job requirement. If we believe that we have been able to "fool" the system to get into a higher queue priority, if reflects that we have broken rules and calls for re-auditing all applications.So bringing up something which cannot be substantiated should be avoided.

    I realise that a new kid in the block with a 5 yr exp or MS comes to US and applies in 2008 for PERM, at this rate EB3 from 2004-2008 run the risk of syaing put till all the new EB2's clear up as that queue will be serviced fast, but i guess the problem is that people who changed jobs and used previous exp are going to benefit whileas people who joined their first job and stayed there till GC will suffer...unfortunately there is not much that can be done , except fight for visa recapture.

    It is not about ppl, USA values a phd level job vs a MS level job vs a B.S level job, and would rather incentivice them in that order. The fact you qualify for M.S level job today means that you may have to go out take it and recertify your LC.

    I dont think EB3 ppl are jealous. But dont react with emotion.



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  • learning01
    05-24 02:09 PM
    threads and postings. Since he is challenging and throwing baby tantrums on a forum, of all things, let's have it.
    Here, I quote from his first troll post in this thread:
    wages have been stagnated for the last five years.
    Now, my friend Communique can you back this up with reliable references and links. Also, can you rebut, point by point on what I said about Lou Dobbs.
    Even in the commentary in the link given by this thread's starter, there is all kinds of rants from Lou and not one, I repeat not one senctence, let alone one paragraph on issues affecting legal immigration.
    I have said earlier: we have to stay focussed on the retrogression and backlog issues. That's what I have been urging Communique and others in this thread. Increase or decrease of H1 is not our goal here. In fact, I should not discussing this. I was trying to bring all folks here to our focussed goals and action on hand.

    I've said this before: I usually dont like casting aspersions, but take a look at a lot of Communique's posts. Some look like they were copied and pasted word for word from the NumbersUsa or FAIR site. And now he's defending Lou Dobbs. Using terms like "mass migration" "unchecked immigration", etc. He claims to be an H1B, and he's trolling Lou Dobbs. I think most people on this site can see through the facade.





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  • suavesandeep
    06-25 01:32 PM
    ValidIV,
    I guess i am old school. I like to live within my means and own things in the true sense of owning. Read a lot about leveraging and know if not used correctly you get into financial meltdown we have now.

    I know really smart people make lot of money using this leveraging model. I wish you the best and hope you own 10 homes so that you can donate some to your grandchildren also.

    I will be happy owning one home. And hope to repay it off quickly so i dont have any BANK to answer to. Having a peace of mind that one day when i pay off the home nobody can kick me off my home for any reason is PRICELESS to me.

    Owning 10 homes so that you can donate to your grandkids may be PRICELESS to you. I wish you the best.





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  • mpadapa
    09-26 11:07 AM
    Sen. Obama's proposals to invest heavily in alternative energy will spur a lot of innovation and high-skilled immigrants can be a great part of that initiative. I would rather see piece meal approach like recapture, STEM, etc rather than the CIR, but will Sen Durbin let it happen?? If CIR 2007 is brought back then EB backlogs will further increase, remember the back logs created by the 245i applicants (in 2000) we are still recovering from that. High-skilled immigrants can only be benefited by bills like recapture, STEM, country quota removal, etc.





    jung.lee
    04-05 06:07 PM
    The analysis is interesting, but this much amount has already been written off considering 100% of option ARM, and alt-ARM will fail.

    I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.

    The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).

    On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.

    Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).

    Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.

    You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))

    Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).

    Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.

    So you stand to lose:

    1. Your down payment of $120k
    2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
    3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k

    Total potential loss: $250,000!!!

    This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.

    My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.





    somegchuh
    03-25 02:14 PM
    I am glad you see the spirit. I love hearing counter points.
    Good Points. I like discussing real-estate; I'm deeply interested in it. So in that spirit of having a good conversation, here's my response:

    Couldn't agree more. Real estate is really local. IMHO, rela estate in SF Bay Area where I live, is still very inflated. It will slide for at least a few years before it starts stagnating. Off course even in Bay Area there are bright spots where the schools are really good.

    Real Estate market is always local. Unlike the market for -let's say- rice, which can be transported from one place where it's abundant to where it's scarce easily. Real Estate remains where it is. It's also subjected to a lot of local laws, municipal regulations etc. So, any discussion we have here will NOT apply to every single location. You have to research your own local regulations/market etc.

    If you have rent control, it significantly changes the picture. It usually doesn't make sense to buy if you have rent control.


    Could you explain property tax a little more? i.e. when you own it what % of your house is the tax? Is it a state tax? Is it fed deductible?

    Yep, you pay it when you own a house. And yes, you pay it when you rent (it's rolled into your rent). The difference is that when you own, it's tax-deductible; if you pay it as part of your rent, it's not.



    As a standard practice coming up with 20% down payment should be the right practice. But in Bay Area where an average house is 700K, coming up with 140K just for down payment is not easy. Again, this is really local. In ohter places coming with up with 20% makes it really easy. But in Bay Area ppl end up paying 5-10% as down payment and then pay monthly PMI.

    You don't pay PMI, if you put down 20%. Not a bad idea to save that much. It forces one to learn financial planning and forward thinking.


    Completely agree. Primary residence is for living but you don't want to buy something for .5 mil and realize you got sucked into a bad deal.

    Profit/Loss is not what the primary residence is for.


    Well, rents in the longer eventually do go up.

    You can rent for less, now, but how about later? You're assuming rents don't go up, but they do. One of my neighbors pays $250 per month in loan payment for a house he bought 20 years ago (property tax and insurance adds $550 more). It was a big payment then. Now it's almost live living for free. If he rented this he'd by paying $2500 at least. Again, if you don't plan to settle down, don't buy.



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